Chris Mayer: The Coffee Can Approach

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Chris Mayer, a friend of our firm who authors a well regarded publication titled Capital & Crisis, was kind enough to contribute an article for this edition of The World According to Boyar. 

His article touches on a theme we discussed in our latest quarterly letter: How investors can be their own worst enemies by focusing on short-term performance and selling stocks too early. 

This behavior is in part aided and abetted by the short-term focus of financial news outlets (with notable exceptions) and their desire to sensationalize stories to drive ratings and/or sell newspapers. This “noise” puts pressure on investors to take action each time a company they own temporarily stumbles or when there is geopolitical uncertainty that causes a near-term correction. 

In the vast majority of cases, however, the best course of action would be for an investor to stay the course. In this article, Mayer maintains that investors should focus on finding great investments and buy them with the intention of holding them for the long-term. He discusses a strategy called the “coffee can portfolio” advanced by long-time money manager Robert Kirby as a way investors could avoid the temptation to act.

Charlie Munger: 25 Cognitive Biases that Ruin Your Life, Explained

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Want to practice better decision making?

Unfortunately, your natural brain’s pretty dumb and easily tricked. To save energy and make faster decisions, it relies on cognitive heuristics to make fast judgments.

In prehistoric days when we had to avoid getting devoured by lions, these fast heuristics worked pretty well. Now that life is more complex, the decisions you need to make are more complex, and your cognitive biases trick you into making bad decisions.

These 25 cognitive biases come from “The Psychology of Human Misjudgment,” a talk by Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett’s partner at Berkshire Hathaway.

By learning these biases, you’ll guard yourself against people trying to exploit you. Even better, you’ll guard against your worst enemy: your own brain.

Russell Napier: Gold, The Euro, and Capital Controls

 

Russell Napier is the Author of "The Solid Ground", an independently published global Macro investment report. Russell is also a Co-Founder of ERIC (www.eri-c.com) the platform for the sale of individually priced investment research. He was a Consultant Global Macro Strategist with CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets for almost twenty years. In 2013, Russell was elected as a fellow of the CFA Institute of the UK.

Russell Napier: Central Banks Have Become Irrelevant

the market:

The Scottish market strategist Russell Napier warns that investors should prepare for inflation rates of 4% and more by next year. The main reason: Governments have taken control of the money supply.

In the years following the financial crisis, numerous economists and market observers warned of rising inflation in the face of the unorthodox monetary p0licy by central banks. They were wrong time and again.

Russell Napier was never one of them. The Scottish market strategist has for two decades – correctly – seen disinflation as the dominant theme for financial markets. That is why investors should listen to him when he now warns of rising inflation.

"Politicians have gained control of money supply and they will not give up this instrument anymore", Napier says. In his view, we are at the beginning of a new era of financial repression, in which politicians will make sure that inflation rates remain consistently above government bond yields for years. This is the only way to reduce the crushing levels of debt, argues Napier.

Frank Holmes: Some Are Betting on Red, Some on Blue. I'm Betting on Gold

US Global Investors:

Whether you support President Donald Trump or not, you must acknowledge that one of the bedrocks of his governing style is unpredictability. To some critics, Trump’s behavior and decision-making process may seem erratic, but I believe they make a sort of sense when viewed through the lens of game theory.

Take, for example, his hot-and-cold stance on a new coronavirus stimulus bill this week. On Tuesday, Trump unexpectedly tweeted that negotiations with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi would halt until after the election. “After I win, we will pass a major Stimulus Bill that focuses on hardworking Americans and Small Businesses,” he said.

That same day, Trump appeared to change his mind—reportedly after he saw how the stock market, and particularly airline stocks, reacted to the news. (I often say that he’s the first American president who keeps his eye on the stock market and sees it as a gauge of his success.) “The House & Senate should IMMEDIATELY Approve 25 Billion Dollars for Airline Payroll Support,” he tweeted.

Capitalist Exploits: Investing For The Greenwash Bubble

Capitalist Exploits:

Greenwashing, in case you don’t know, is the “disinformation disseminated by an organization so as to present an environmentally responsible public image”.

This is taken from the time of the now infamous Volkswagen emissions cheating scandal. Since then, other large car companies have faced similar controversy — jumping on the green band wagon. It’s because these days, it pays to be “green” (for more information, see Elon Musk).

But here’s the thing that otherwise intelligent people seem to fail to comprehend: Greenwashing extends way beyond false advertising in consumer goods. It’s made its way into politics, investment products, journalism, and now mainstream opinion in “the West”.

Greenwashing is actually now the norm, which we’re now going to get into after I fire off an early warning trigger alert.

Charlie Munger:The Psychology of Human Misjudgement

 

Audio of the often referred to speech by Charlie Munger on the psychology of human misjudgement given to an audience at Harvard University circa Jun 1995. Mr. Munger speaks about the framework for decision making and the factors contributing to misjudgements. c. Jun 1, 1995