Money World Interview with John Templeton

 

An old video but very good comments from Templeton.

Goehring & Rozencwajg Q2 2021 market commentary: The IEA Ushers in the Coming Oil Crisis

Goehring & Rozencwajg 

The fundamental problems facing global oil markets are much more severe than 2021’s spike in oil prices would suggest.

Our newest commentary, The IEA Ushers in the Coming Oil Crisis, provides an in-depth look at why global oil demand will not taper off due to ESG-related reasons, as the IEA predicts, and supply growth will likely remain restricted — a recipe for a dramatic oil deficit.

• Problems facing the oil supermajors: Exxon, Chevron, Royal Dutch Shell and Total
• Shrinking global oil inventories
• Tightness in the US natural gas markets
• Higher-than-expected Chinese agricultural demand

Jesse Felder: Find The Courage To Act

 Link:

A few months ago I wrote Master The Art Of Doing Nothing, in which I argued that, while it may be the most difficult thing for an investor to do, the vast majority of the time an investor should simply do nothing at all. Truly wonderful opportunities don’t come around very often but having the patience to wait for them is what separates the best investors on the planet from the rest.

However, it’s not only the waiting that is critical to success; it is also the courage to act when the time arises. Aside from being too active, another major mistake investors make is simply being too timid, or becoming too comfortable with doing nothing at all and this can be just as costly if not even more so. As Warren Buffett has said, mistakes of omission, or failing to act, have cost him far more than mistakes of commission, or acting when he shouldn’t have.

Jim Rogers: Market crash coming? Jim Rogers says not yet; invest in these 'hated' assets

There’s simply too much money injected into the monetary system by central banks to allow a sizeable bear market to take place soon, said Jim Rogers, investor and chairman of Rogers Holdings.

“Many stocks in the U.S. are down in 2020. There are a few stocks that are going through the roof every day. Some parts of the U.S. market are developing a beginning of a bubble, but many parts of the markets are not, that’s why I suspect [this rally] is going to go on for a while,” Rogers said.

Jonathan Boyar: Spotting Investment Opportunities In Out Of Favor Industries

 Link:

Over the long run, stock markets are fairly efficient. In the shorter term, however, valuations can go to extremes both on the low and high sides. Investors usually create these anomalies by piling into whatever is currently in vogue and indiscriminately selling whatever is out of favor.

When industries fall out of favor, Wall Street sometimes drives the market cap of companies within that sector far below what an acquirer would pay for the entire company. That leads to buying opportunities for discerning investors with the patience to wait for the industry to right itself. Of course, it’s anyone’s guess when the tide might turn—investors may need to suffer through years of under-performance before these investments eventually pay off. It’s often well worth the wait, however.

Smead Capital Management: Humility Produces Alpha

 Link:

Joe Kennedy was getting his shoes shined in 1929 and the shoeshine boy was giving him stock tips. Think of how humiliating it might have been to Kennedy, who had dramatically reduced his common stock ownership. This upstart had been making money and couldn’t wait to pass along his wisdom to Mr. Kennedy. Joe quickly surmised that there was nobody left to buy stocks and established a huge short position in the stock market. The fortune he made by betting against stocks was part of the wealth which led his son, John F. Kennedy, to become President of the United States in 1960.

We were at our grandkid’s soccer game recently and we struck up a conversation with one of the parents. They worked for a successful fintech company (which we owned for a long time) and explained to us that they had invested in Shopify (SHOP) at around $140 per share. I looked it up over the weekend and was astounded by what the numbers told me.

Smead Capital Management: Energy in the Icahn-ic Green Room

 Link:

David Dreman’s book, Contrarian Investment Strategies, was gospel to investors when it was first published in 1979. Investors had been decimated by markets going nowhere over the prior 10 years. Stock investors were ready for something new. Dreman had produced a lot of success as an investor and wanted to share his gospel of contrarian value investing.

The perfect picture of Dreman’s gospel comes from his opening chapter. He refers to the stock market as a casino with a green wing and a red wing. Looking into the green wing, “the atmosphere is unhurried, the blackjack tables are sparsely attended, and every player sits behind a mound of green and black chips.” As he points out, everything is so mundane that “you think you’ve come to the wrong place.” The next thing you notice is the players in the room, “they’re all winning.”

Howard Marks: Real estate, retail, entertainment and hospitality stocks are the real opportunities for investors now

Market Insider:

Howard Marks has a new message for investors, look at 'out of favour' assets as they have a better chance of getting returns at a time when interest rates are at rock bottom. 

The assets that Marks, who is co-founder and co-chairman of distressed-asset fund Oaktree Capital Management,  considers to be "out of favor" are those that suffered the worst from the lockdowns, including retail, entertainment, hospitality and real estate stocks. 

"Out of favour, we have real estate, especially retail real estate and real-estate in big cities. We have entertainment stocks, cruise stocks and hospitality stocks," he said.