Jeremy Grantham: Beware The ‘Confidence Termites’

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In his recent interview on The Moneyweek Podcast, Jeremy Grantham discussed what might bring this latest prolonged bubble to an end, and the role of the ‘confidence termites’. Here’s an excerpt from the interview:

Grantham: The history books are pretty clear, there doesn’t have to be a pin. No one can tell you what the pin was in 1929. We’re not even certain in 2000. It’s more like air leaking out of a balloon. You get to a point of maximum confidence, of maximum leverage, maximum debt, and then the air begins to leak.

And I like to say, the bubble doesn’t reach its maximum and then get frightened to death, what happens is the air starts to leak out slowly because tomorrow is a little less optimistic than yesterday. And gradually, people begin to pull back. And the process is very interesting, in that before the end of the great bubbles, and there’s only been a handful, so we can get carried away with over-analysis.

Meb Faber: Jeremy Grantham, “What Day Is The Highest Level Of Optimism? It’s The Day The Market Hits The Peak”

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In today’s episode, Jeremy begins by talking about the current market, which he believes will be recorded as one of the great bubbles of financial history. He puts this bubble into historical perspective by comparing it to the Japanese, technology and housing bubbles. Then he addresses the commonly cited argument that low interest rates justify high stock valuations. Next, Jeremy explains why he is so bullish on venture capital and has allocated almost 60% of his foundation to the asset class, making it, as he says, one of the most aggressive portfolios in the philanthropic world.

Jeremy Grantham: Why Grantham Says the Next Crash Will Rival 1929, 2000

 Jeremy Grantham, co-founder and chief investment strategist of Boston’s GMO, believes U.S. stocks have become an epic bubble and will burst in a collapse rivaling the crashes of 1929 and 2000. In this interview, he explains why, discusses the futility of Federal Reserve policy, criticizes the state of American capitalism, and shares his thoughts on gold, Bitcoin, emerging markets and climate change. He spoke exclusively to Erik Schatzker on Bloomberg’s “Front Row.”

Jeremy Grantham: Waiting For The Last Dance, The Hazards of Asset Allocation in a Late-stage Major Bubble

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The long, long bull market since 2009 has finally matured into a fully-fledged epic bubble. Featuring extreme overvaluation, explosive price increases, frenzied issuance, and hysterically speculative investor behavior, I believe this event will be recorded as one of the great bubbles of financial history, right along with the South Sea bubble, 1929, and 2000.

These great bubbles are where fortunes are made and lost – and where investors truly prove their mettle. For positioning a portfolio to avoid the worst pain of a major bubble breaking is likely the most difficult part. Every career incentive in the industry and every fault of individual human psychology will work toward sucking investors in.But this bubble will burst in due time, no matter how hard the Fed tries to support it, with consequent damaging effects on the economy and on portfolios.

 Make no mistake – for the majority of investors today, this could very well be the most important event of your investing lives. Speaking as an old student and historian of markets, it is intellectually exciting and terrifying at the same time. It is a privilege to ride through a market like this one more time.