Audio of the often referred to speech by Charlie Munger on the psychology of human misjudgement given to an audience at Harvard University circa Jun 1995. Mr. Munger speaks about the framework for decision making and the factors contributing to misjudgements. c. Jun 1, 1995
Howard Marks has a new message for investors, look at 'out of favour' assets as they have a better chance of getting returns at a time when interest rates are at rock bottom.
The assets that Marks, who is co-founder and co-chairman of distressed-asset fund Oaktree Capital Management, considers to be "out of favor" are those that suffered the worst from the lockdowns, including retail, entertainment, hospitality and real estate stocks.
"Out of favour, we have real estate, especially retail real estate and real-estate in big cities. We have entertainment stocks, cruise stocks and hospitality stocks," he said.
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Over the past few months, I’ve been writing a lot about Event-Driven strategies, mainly because I see an unusual amount of opportunity there. That said, Event-Driven remains a small piece of my book. The core of what I do is inflection investing—finding a theme that’s inflecting better and get there before anyone else realizes it.
With that preamble out of the way, today the government announced that seasonally adjusted new home sales for August hit 1.011 million. For those keeping score at home, this is the highest that this figure has been since 2006 and up 43% from last year.
The contrarian case for buying energy stocks just keeps getting stronger and stronger. Exxon, after getting booted from the Dow Jones Industrial Average, just experienced its worst 30-day stretch of stock price performance in at least 40 years, according to SentimenTrader.
And it’s not just this sector flagship; energy stocks now represent the most hated stock market sector of all time according to the firm. To top it all off, The Economist recently proclaimed the death of oil (once again: see 1999 and 2003).
