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Wednesday, March 3, 2021

Frank Holmes: Texas Freezes in New Commodity Supercycle

Link:

A joint state and federal investigation into the outages has already been announced, and improvements to (and winterization of) aging infrastructure will likely be recommended, if not required, to prevent this from happening again. Such a massive overhaul would require an incredible amount of metals and other basic materials, which would be positive for miners and producers.

We're particularly bullish on copper, used extensively in electrical wiring and circuitry.

Texas is the ninth largest economy in the world, ahead of Canada, South Korea and now Brazil. It consumes more energy than any other US state. Its residents and businesses deserve a world-class power grid that operates reliably in all weather conditions, even those that strike only once every 100 years.

Tuesday, March 2, 2021

Crescat Capital: February Research Letter

Link:

The year is just getting started and the US fiscal deficit already reached another record, now at its worst level in 70 years. The Fed is facing its worst predicament yet. The current fiscal spending path will lead to record Treasury issuance this year. Foreign investors are unlikely to be the ones funding this operation. With 2020 as a guide, there are no buyers of any size for those securities outside of US banks and the Fed. Major foreign holders of US debt only bought about 5.2% of all Treasuries issued last year. In the face of this enormous new government debt issuance, the Fed faces the impossible task of continuing to prop up already historic asset bubbles while also preventing inflation. The current extreme fiscal imbalances put the central bank on a crash course to fail at both.

Monday, March 1, 2021

MacroVoices: #260 Lyn Alden: Shifting from Monetary to Fiscal Dominance

 Link:

  • Perspectives on mainstream deflationists adopting a new inflation view
  • Limits to excessive deficit spending and fiscal stimulus
  • Fiscal vs. Monetary dominance
  • Macro asset allocation strategy in fiscal dominance environment
  • Perspectives on the Fed’s yield control
  • U.S. broad money supply vs. Japanese broad money supply
  • Outlook on Gold and Bitcoin