Howard Marks: The Most Important Thing

 Link:

You can argue that not every stock goes up long term, in which case, you’d be right. There are plenty that stagnate, while others fall apart completely.

And how can you tell which is which, especially given the second quote: “No rule always works, the environment isn’t controllable, and circumstances rarely repeat exactly?”

To that very good question, I would make three recommendations:

Know your pain vs. pleasure tolerances.

Allocate your portfolio appropriately.

Know each company’s actual value before you buy into it.

As Marks says, “Investing requires just one thing: dealing with the future.” And the future is undoubtedly going to be filled with emotions, failures, and corrections.

John Polomny: Even The Smartest Man Ever Could Not Keep From Getting FOMO. Weekly Market Update 2-6-21

 

Sir Issac Newton, who many say was the smartest human ever, got caught up in the FOMO of the South Seas Bubble. He made some money at the start and got out. But seeing his friends get rich caused his FOMO to soar. He got in big at the top and lost most of his money. 

History repeats with the FOMO and greed that we have seen in this bubble market. 

I also discuss the 68% gain in Athabasca Oil Sands since I mentioned it in my past video from last week.

Jeremy Grantham: Why Grantham Says the Next Crash Will Rival 1929, 2000

 Jeremy Grantham, co-founder and chief investment strategist of Boston’s GMO, believes U.S. stocks have become an epic bubble and will burst in a collapse rivaling the crashes of 1929 and 2000. In this interview, he explains why, discusses the futility of Federal Reserve policy, criticizes the state of American capitalism, and shares his thoughts on gold, Bitcoin, emerging markets and climate change. He spoke exclusively to Erik Schatzker on Bloomberg’s “Front Row.”

Stan Druckenmiller: The Wildest Cocktail I Have Ever Seen

In this episode of Talks at GS, investor Stanley Druckenmiller discusses his current outlook on the market, his approach to risk management throughout his career, and his perspective on the conversation surrounding the role of capitalism in American society.

Frank Holmes: Energy and Natural Resources Market

 Link:

The best performing commodity for the week was natural gas, up 12.09%. U.S. natural gas futures extended gains through the week, amid colder weather forecasts across the country for February. The spread between March and April natural gas futures -- known as the widowmaker -- flipped to positive on Monday for the first time since January, writes Bloomberg.

Brent crude continues to make a comeback, trading near $60 a barrel, which was a low as $35 three months ago. OPEC+ said it will continue to quickly clear the oil surplus created by the pandemic and is currently withholding 7 million barrels a day of output, or around 7% of global supplies. China’s biggest offshore oil and gas producer said it will boost spending by 19% this year ahead of an expected production surge, in contrast to other global producers cutting spending.

Credit Suisse upgraded the U.S. steel sector to overweight, predicting prices could remain above the historical average of $600 a ton through the year. Bloomberg notes the firm turned bullish on Nucor, Steel Dynamics and Stelco.

Jesse Felder: The ‘Index Of The Volume Of Speculation’ Blows Off

Link:

There are all sorts of signals pointing to rampant speculation in the stock market today. And if we are to measure it by way of margin debt (normalized by the size of the economy), then what we are witnessing is, in fact, a level of speculation that dwarfs anything seen in modern times.

Not only is the overall level of margin debt hitting new highs, the 9-month increase in the total amount of margin debt also just soared to a new record. It’s hard to believe that both of these could be possible simultaneously, that off of such a massive base the amount of debt used to speculate could increase so rapidly, but there you have it.

Harris Kupperman: Talking KEDM On Real Vision

 Link:

During one of the craziest weeks I can remember in the markets, I chatted with Max Wiethe from Real Vision about what is going on. We covered a lot of ground, including an overview of why this is a golden era for Event-Driven trading and how KEDM can help you capitalize on all of the opportunity. We also go through a few historic examples so you can get a better sense of how to use KEDM. (For those of you who don’t know what I’m talking about, click here for my introduction to KEDM.Com)

By special request, my friends at Real Vision have let me distribute the interview for those who aren’t yet paid up Real Vision subscribers (Seriously?? Who wouldn’t already be a subscriber?? It’s well worth the cost).