Tuesday, October 6, 2020
Howard Marks: Real estate, retail, entertainment and hospitality stocks are the real opportunities for investors now
Howard Marks has a new message for investors, look at 'out of favour' assets as they have a better chance of getting returns at a time when interest rates are at rock bottom.
The assets that Marks, who is co-founder and co-chairman of distressed-asset fund Oaktree Capital Management, considers to be "out of favor" are those that suffered the worst from the lockdowns, including retail, entertainment, hospitality and real estate stocks.
"Out of favour, we have real estate, especially retail real estate and real-estate in big cities. We have entertainment stocks, cruise stocks and hospitality stocks," he said.
Sunday, October 4, 2020
In Gold We Trust 2020
Since 2007, the annual In Gold We Trust report is THE authoritative report on gold investing, and is required reading for anyone interested in the precious metal market. As a team, Ronald-Peter Stöferle and Mark Valek analyze the state of the global financial markets, monetary dynamics and their influence on gold price developments like no other.
Saturday, October 3, 2020
Market Huddle Podcast with Guest Harris Kupperman
Kuppy talks about his highest conviction idea.
Adventures In Capitalism: Playing The Housing Recovery
Over the past few months, I’ve been writing a lot about Event-Driven strategies, mainly because I see an unusual amount of opportunity there. That said, Event-Driven remains a small piece of my book. The core of what I do is inflection investing—finding a theme that’s inflecting better and get there before anyone else realizes it.
With that preamble out of the way, today the government announced that seasonally adjusted new home sales for August hit 1.011 million. For those keeping score at home, this is the highest that this figure has been since 2006 and up 43% from last year.
Thursday, October 1, 2020
It’s Time To Get Greedy In The Energy Sector, Part Deux
The contrarian case for buying energy stocks just keeps getting stronger and stronger. Exxon, after getting booted from the Dow Jones Industrial Average, just experienced its worst 30-day stretch of stock price performance in at least 40 years, according to SentimenTrader.
And it’s not just this sector flagship; energy stocks now represent the most hated stock market sector of all time according to the firm. To top it all off, The Economist recently proclaimed the death of oil (once again: see 1999 and 2003).
Smead’s Folly Becomes Newsom’s Folly
We became extremely bearish on energy in 2011. At the time, we saw interest in Seattle for hybrid and electric cars. This convinced us that 10% of the cars on the road nationwide might be hybrid and electric by 2020. In actuality, only 2% of total unit sales in the U.S. were electric vehicles over the last ten years. We also felt back then that the enthusiasm among investors for emerging markets/China was overblown and would cause oil demand forecasts to fall short of expectations.
It turns out we were wrong, because we were too early in our prediction. It wasn’t until 2016, and then more recently with the COVID-19 lockdowns in 2020, that oil prices declined steeply. From the summer of 2014 to the summer of 2019, we benefited from having no participation in the energy sector.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)