Smead’s Folly Becomes Newsom’s Folly

Smead Capital Management:

We became extremely bearish on energy in 2011. At the time, we saw interest in Seattle for hybrid and electric cars. This convinced us that 10% of the cars on the road nationwide might be hybrid and electric by 2020. In actuality, only 2% of total unit sales in the U.S. were electric vehicles over the last ten years. We also felt back then that the enthusiasm among investors for emerging markets/China was overblown and would cause oil demand forecasts to fall short of expectations.

It turns out we were wrong, because we were too early in our prediction. It wasn’t until 2016, and then more recently with the COVID-19 lockdowns in 2020, that oil prices declined steeply. From the summer of 2014 to the summer of 2019, we benefited from having no participation in the energy sector.

Crescat Capital: A New Bull Market for Precious Metals

Crescat Capital:

2020 Q2 Investor Letter

Central banks are facing a serious predicament. After decades of ongoing accommodative monetary policy, the world is now sitting at record levels of debt relative to global GDP. In our view, there has never been a bigger gulf between underlying economic fundamentals and security prices. 

We are in a global recession, but equity and credit markets still trading at outrageous valuations. Markets are trading on a perverse combination of Fed life support and rabid speculative mania. Meanwhile, demand for gold and silver, which is fundamentally cheap, is starting to take off as central banks are engaged in new record easy monetary policies. 

Ongoing easy monetary policies in the face of today’s asset bubbles in stocks and fixed income securities has a high probability of leading to a self-reinforcing cycle that drives investors out of these over-valued asset classes and into under-valued precious metals. Here are just some of the reasons Crescat is selling richly valued stocks at large and buying undervalued gold and silver including mining companies today.

Goehring & Rozen: On the Verge Of An Energy Crisis

Goehring & Rozencwajg:

2020 Second Quarter Coomentary

How quickly can oil supply be brought back to meet recovering demand?

That is the critical question investors are asking, and the one we strive to answer in this quarter’s in-depth commentary. While most investors believe the lost production will be easily brought back online, our models tell us something vastly different. While OPEC+ production will likely rebound, non-OPEC+ supply will be extremely challenged. Instead of recovering, our models tell us that non-OPEC+ production is about to decline dramatically from today’s already low levels.    

Jim Rogers: Beware The Stock Market Is A Ticking Time Bomb

 Economic Times:

Legendary investor Jim Rogers believes the next decade is going to be tough for global investors. In an interaction with ETNOW, he said the worst of his lifetime is yet to come, which will take a huge toll on many of the hyped-up stocks.

Commenting on the ongoing trend, where expensive stocks are getting more expensive and cheap ones are getting cheaper, he said this always happens towards the end of a bull market, as people think they are safe, and thereafter, you have a blow-off in the market.

Roger said governments and central banks are printing a huge amount of money. There are chances that people might lose their confidence in governments and can move towards precious metals.

Ray Dalio "The US Dollar Is At Risk" - What Investors Should Do

 

Ray Dalio is the original founder and as of recently former CEO of Bridgewater Associates, which is currently the largest hedge fund in the world. He's known for his macro economic expertise, and as the pioneer of risky parity investing, an investment strategy that focuses on diversifying according to risk rather than asset class. In a recent Ray Dalio interview, he talks about the current state of the economy and what is to come. Dalio explains that the dollars role as the Global Reserve Currency is at risk. Ray Dalio explains the different types of monetary policy used in the past, present, and what will likely be done in the future. He then shares his opinion on the markets, and provides investors with some ideas for investing in the coming months and years. Ray Dalio speaks about inflation, deflation, and how different economies will react moving forward. If you're worried about inflation, market volatility, or a full on market crash, this is an interview you don't want to miss. Ray Dalio is a true genius inside and outside of the investment world, and his insights on the stock market, equities, bonds, cash, and gold is unlike anyone else in the mainstream financial media.

Howard Marks Says "The Stock Market Is WRONG"

 

If your analysis is correct you buy more when your stock goes down. There is a fine line between hubris and certainity. 

"Buying at the low point has to terrify you."

Howard Marks: The Fed Has Bailed Out The Market From A Depression

 

In this video Howard Marks talks the Fed bailing out the stock market with trillions of dollars. How has this affected the market and can they keep this printing up forever? We'll let Marks do the talking!